On November 5, polling places around the country opened for election day voting. Just under a month later, on Wednesday, December 4, the final House race: California’s 13th district was called for Democrat Adam Gray, flipping the seat from Republican incumbent John Duarte. Now that that race has been called, almost every ballot has been counted, and we know the major results of that election day over a month ago.

The Presidency

Republican candidate, and former president Donald Trump won the presidency with 312 electoral votes to Kamala Harris’ 226. Trump’s 312 electoral votes is more than he received in 2016, and more than Biden received in 2020. The last time a Republican acquired more electoral votes was in the 1988 landslide victory for George H. W. Bush when he won 426 electoral votes.

Trump also won the popular vote, having secured 49.9% of the vote to Harris’ 48.4% as of December 6. This is the first election a Republican has won the popular vote since George W. Bush secured 50.1% of the vote in 2004, and the first time a non-incumbent Republican has done that since 1988 when George W. Bush’s father, George H. W. Bush secured 53.4% of the vote.

The Swing States

Trump swept all seven key swing states; those being Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. This is a stark contrast from 2020, where Biden was able to secure the right-leaning swing state of Georgia, which voted for Trump by over 2% this election.

Spoiler Effect?

One point of conversation prior to the election was if Green Party candidate Jill Stein could have a spoiler effect on a potential Harris victory — a spoiler effect being an election situation in a two- party system where a third-party candidate “takes” votes from one of the candidates by running a platform that’s too ideologically similar. The most notable occurrence of this was in the 2000 presidential election, when Green Party candidate Ralph Nader ran and may have swayed votes away from Democrat Al Gore in the crucial state of Florida, which ended up being decided by less than 600 votes — of course, there were more factors at play though.

In the end, Jill Stein who was endorsed as the pro-Palestine candidate received less than 1% of the vote in each of the key swing states, and likely did not have an impact on the outcome.

The Senate

There were 34 Senate seats up for election this year, 23 of which were held by Democrats, and 11 of which were held by Republicans. Republicans flipped 4 seats held by Democrats, while Democrats flipped zero seats held by Republicans, which gives Republicans control of the Senate with a 53-47 seat majority.

The Flipped Seats

Republicans flipped seats in the typically red states of Montana, Ohio, West Virginia, and the swing state of Pennsylvania. Republicans defeated incumbent Democrats in each of these races but West Virginia, whose sitting Democrat Senator Joe Manchin did not seek reelection. The closest of these races was the Pennsylvania Senate race, which nearly went to a recount after being decided by less than half a percent.

The Swing States

In the remaining swing states, Democrats held onto their senate seats despite losing the presidential race for a variety of reasons. Two of the largest reasons being voters that split their ticket for a third party in the senate race and an electoral phenomenon known as undervoting. While undervoting was not particularly exceptional this year, it certainly did affect the results. Undervoting is when voters do not make as many selections as are allowed for that race, so in this case, not recording a senate vote, while also recording a presidential vote.

In Michigan and Nevada, the Democratic candidate for senate received less votes than Harris’ did in her presidential loss in that state; but won the state, in part because of the reduced number of votes recorded in the senate races. In each state there was also a large increase in third party voters in the senate race. In Michigan roughly 2% of voters (as of December 9) selected a third party in the presidential race, while roughly 3% selected a third-party candidate in the senate race. In Nevada roughly 1.9% of voters selected a third-party candidate or “None of these candidates” in the presidential race, while 5.9% of voters did the same in the senate race.

In Wisconsin, the Democratic candidates received more votes than Harris did, but a still significant number of voters did not record a selection in the senate race, which may have contributed to a Democrat victory in the race. This indicates a significant number of Trump voters may have voted for the Democratic candidate in the senate race. Additionally, half-a- percent more voters selected third-party candidates in the senate race compared to the presidential race.

In the swing state of Arizona, the Democratic party candidate was the only senate candidate in a swing state to receive over 50% of the vote. The Republican candidate in this race, Kari Lake, had lost the 2022 Arizona senate election as well.

The House of Representatives

Across the 435 House seats, the Republican party maintained a slim majority of 220 seats to 215. This was a net gain of 1 seat for the Democratic party (*see note). This razor thin majority is the only allows House Republicans for two members to vote against the party and still pass their favored legislation (assuming all Democrats vote in opposition). It is the thinnest House margin won on election day since 1930 when Republicans won 218 seats.

Further complicating the matter, President-elect Trump selected three House Republicans, Elisa Stefanik (NY-21), Mike Waltz (FL-06), and Matt Gaetz (FL-01) to serve in his cabinet. Gaetz has already removed his name from consideration for Attorney General amid allegations of sexual misconduct and a pending House Ethics report. He will not serve in the next Congress though, as he has already resigned from Congress and has stated he will not accept his nomination to the next congress. Assuming Stefanik and Waltz are confirmed by the Senate, there will be a period where the Republican majority is 217-215 before the special elections to replace them occur.

It is likely that the Republican majority will remain 220-215 after the special elections are completed, as none of the three seats that need filled are competitive districts, with each candidate earning over 60 percent of the vote in their respective races.

Where did each party pick up seats?

The Democratic party flipped 9 seats to the Republican’s 8. Each party benefited from redistricting in certain states, which occurs after every census, or when courts deem the map unfair. Democrats gained one seat in Alabama and one in Louisiana, both of which were redrawn after courts ruled that the previous maps weakened the votes of black voters. Democrats also gained 3 seats in New York, and 3 in California thanks in part to their new congressional maps which favored the party. Democrats also picked up a seat in Oregon.

Republicans picked up one seat each in Alaska, and Colorado. The remaining seats were in three different swing states, one seat in Michigan, two in Pennsylvania, and three in North Carolina. Republicans largely benefited in North Carolina after the North Carolina Supreme Court reversed a prior decision banning partisan gerrymandering, allowing North Carolina Republicans to redraw their map from one of the fairest in the country, to one of the most gerrymandered.

This election secured a Republican trifecta until 2026, when every House seat will be up for grabs, and most-likely 35 Senate seats will be up for election. Currently Republicans are favored to maintain control of the Senate, but a lot can change in 2 years.